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电气设备中报:阶段性亮点仍在中低压电气产业

2012-07-25 09:20
汉水狂客
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  高压一次设备总体难言大起色,但毛利率企稳回升,部分企业盈利能力得到恢复。以中国西电(3.59,0.00,0.00%)、平高电气(6.30,0.00,0.00%)、大连电瓷、三变科技为代表的企业上半年净利润预亏,而业绩相对较好的是思源电气(12.58,0.00,0.00%)和长高集团(11.35,0.00,0.00%),其中思源电气的新增合同订单和毛利率回升幅度均超市场预期。

  中低压一次设备仍是中期业绩最好的子行业,部分开关柜厂商维持高增长,但部分下游行业与宏观经济关联度较大,整体需求趋缓也是事实。以鑫龙电器(7.72,0.00,0.00%)、东源电器(6.03,0.00,0.00%)、北京科锐(13.10,0.00,0.00%)、森源电气(13.03,0.00,0.00%)为代表的中压开关柜厂商中期业绩仍维持2011年的快速增长势头,而部分企业如广电电气(4.02,0.00,0.00%)、特锐德(11.240,0.00,0.00%)、中能电气等因管理层交接、或重点下游行业需求疲软等原因出现业绩下滑。以低压龙头正泰电器(14.87,0.00,0.00%)、电气分销龙头众业达(12.66,0.00,0.00%)为代表的规模领先企业2012年中报预计实现5-10%左右的营收增长。

  二次设备中,保护监控类设备厂商受交货和退税影响业绩增长偏平稳,配电和用电自动化环节的设备厂商其业绩增长较明显。预计国电南瑞(16.14,0.00,0.00%)、四方股份(14.30,0.00,0.00%)、国电南自(7.41,0.00,0.00%)等以继保/综自为核心业务的厂商因部分产品交付节奏、软件退税兑现、或费用增长因素等影响,中报业绩略低于市场预期。以积成电子(13.51,0.00,0.00%)、新联电子(16.23,0.00,0.00%)、福星晓程(27.130,0.00,0.00%)、东软载波等以配用电自动化为核心业务的厂商实现业绩较高增长,我们认为这与相应公司的业务体量规模较小以及所在电力自动化环节建设力度较大有关。发电类设备中,相对亮点在于水电设备、余热锅炉设备、电站节能设备、以出口美国导向的风机塔架设备。由于国内用电需求放缓,电力投资尤其是传统火电下滑明显,预计三大动力集团的新增订单承压,但收入确认有大量在手订单和在制品/产成品的缓冲。以浙富股份(7.00,0.00,0.00%)、杭锅股份(15.21,0.00,0.00%)、首航节能(31.38,0.00,0.00%)、龙源技术(26.130,0.00,0.00%)、燃控科技(8.460,0.00,0.00%)、天顺风能(16.80,0.00,0.00%)、泰胜风能(5.860,0.00,0.00%)为代表的企业,其2012年中报业绩预增,属于细分领域中表现较好的。

  电力电子板块受下游工业客户需求放缓影响,整体承压业绩普降或持平。高压变频行业中,智光电气(5.06,0.00,0.00%)和九洲电气(8.320,0.00,0.00%)的净利润均预减,仅龙头企业合康变频(8.250,0.00,0.00%)净利润预增5-20%;中低压变频行业中,汇川技术(19.440,0.00,0.00%)和英威腾(12.76,0.00,0.00%)的净利润均预减,仅新时达(13.87,0.00,0.00%)的净利润预计增长-5-10%。电力电子龙头企业荣信股份(12.08,0.00,0.00%)的中报净利润增长范围为-20%-10%。电力电子板块中业绩预增幅度相对较大的是和顺电气(11.780,0.00,0.00%)和恒顺电气(11.470,0.00,0.00%)。

  电气设备板块统计样本131家,其中2012年中报业绩确定性预增的公司共计42家;业绩预亏的共计12家,主要集中在高压一次设备和光伏行业;业绩确定性预减的共计45家;其余未预告或范围过宽。

声明: 本文由入驻维科号的作者撰写,观点仅代表作者本人,不代表OFweek立场。如有侵权或其他问题,请联系举报。

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